2026 Macro Fog – What We’re Doing

What I’m thinking about: Macro predictions for 2026…amidst an absurdly dense market fog of war.

(If you didn’t receive this Mon AM, it’s because we’re testing out an automated email scheduler to maximize eyeballs…theoretically. Business is nothing more than endless experimentation!)

Caveat that bottom-up data is always preferred, but that doesn’t mean top-down doesn’t have a place…or as it just occurred to me now, bottom-up for tactics, top-down for strategy (I write to inform myself, as much as for your benefit.)

Non-exhaustive bullet point list on what’s most on my mind, as well as what we’re doing. Maybe you’ll have different conclusions, please reply to me with any, and perhaps I’ll write a newsletter about them.

• Jobs and AI. Ticking time bomb…note consumer sentiment has now plunged to lowest level since April 2025 (start of trade war/tariffs), reasoning related to job loss/stability concern driven by AI

• Re jobs report, not sure why private ed is grouped with health services, betting latter is driving more growth (core pillar of job growth right now).
  • Leisure/hospitality more at risk with macro shocks.
  • Prof/biz services is key to pay attention to, expect this to grow. New MIT report indicating upwards of ~12% of productivity ($1.2T in wages annually) can be replaced with AI…as it is today. Expect this percentage to increase rapidly. Mostly impacting this segment.
    • Tons of bloat that should be replaced. University and healthcare admin are top offenders. No undergrad tuition should cost $50K+ /yr esp. in this market. Health insurance costs are obviously egregious.
  • Transportation/warehousing…pay attention. Robotics progress is quietly making huge strides. Amazon expects to cut 500,000 warehouse jobs in favor of robots over the next few years. Let that number sink in.
  • Manufacturing…capitalism always finds the most efficient and cost-effective path. Companies realized it’s cheaper to build finished products outside of the US, and then eat just one tariff on the import (and every month that cost is shifting more to consumers), rather than tariffs multiple times across the supply chain. Domestic industrial build-out is less than it was prior to tariffs.

• Consumerism/distraction at all-time high. Endless scrolling and unlimited entertainment (and some educational) content occupy the masses…while Big Tech one-up’s each other every week, even during the holidays, with ever more powerful models (have you tried Gemini 3 or Claude Opus 4.5 yet?). Job security diminishing by the day, most folks too distracted to realize.
  • No judgement, it is…SO…HARD…to not get distracted. That’s my #1 issue right now, and probably will be the rest of my life. Guardrails need to keep getting stronger.

• Human history would indicate there’s a high chance of unrest, particularly amongst the younger generations, who have less to lose. Probably the most unsettling item on this list.

• Stock market shaky? Crazy high capex and creative financing fueling America’s bet on AI…but backstopped by the best-run cash-flowing companies we’ve ever seen.
  • If stock market takes a sustained plunge, expect top 10% wealthiest US households (representing half of consumption) to cut spending by ~20-30%.
    • Land is a luxury purchase. The buyer pool is extremely limited. Never forget this.

• Fed unclear on whether to cut rates further or not, balancing inflation vs. job growth. With weakening rental market across much of US, should keep a lid on inflation.

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Winter tends to be a slower dispo season, but not always. In light of all of the above, picking up the urgency to move inventory.

Potential buyers have been yanking our chain recently, and we’ve been more amenable to extension requests. Price of a buyer’s market, take it across the chin and keep grinning.

Deal flow has picked up internally. Millions of dollars of deals across our desk every week. Subdivides, like most deals, are a better play in a bull market. Extra scrutiny for those. Don’t get attached to any deal, let downside protection guide you.

Last week passed on a solid deal (on paper) because couldn’t get a broker out to visit the property in time. Very likely that deal is a winner, but this is not a market to break rules in.

No one in our company has special privileges during due diligence. Past losses have cured us of that notion.

Our company culture can be summed up as, “Underwriting over everything.”

Master that…win forever.

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Need land funding? Work with the team who spends 7 days a week assessing market conditions, and getting reps in.